Demography

I am deep in demography these days. I attended our annual professional meeting a few weeks ago, a small conference last week, and will be off to a larger conference in two weeks. I like hanging out with demographers. We are reasonable people who are mainly nice to each other. I don't know if I was drawn to demography because I think like a demographer or if I was trained to think like a demographer. I suppose a little of both.

Demographers study three main things: mortality, fertility, and migration. I fall into the mortality area. I always liked it because it was so much cleaner than fertility--you don't have to worry about intentions, desires, plans. Most people try to avoid death as long as possible and most only die once. Easy to count that way.

But, I was thinking about fertility the other day and one of my favorite demographic phrases. A well-known demographer Ansley Coale studied the decline of fertility in populations. He suggested that in order for fertility to be controlled three things had to occur. First, fertility control had to be in the "calculus of conscious choice." Second, that women had to see some benefit to fertility control. And, third, that they had to have a means to control fertility.

It is the phrase "calculus of conscious choice" that has stuck with me all these 25 some years. Before we can make any change we have to recognize it as possible, it has to be within our set of options, within our conscious mind. How many times are we blind to the options available because they don't exist for us? We simply do not see them. I think it happens a lot. Women could not imagine that fertility was even something that was possible to control. Babies just happened, how could that be within their control? In the same way we might think that some type of change is not even something we can control, not something we can exert any influence over.

But, just like fertility change, other changes can happen, too. Think about what you might be able to move into your calculus of conscious choice.